The London Enterprise Office

5th November 2008

Fidel Castro and Barrack Obama

The sweeping victory for Barack Obama and the democratic Party in the US elections means that change in the US’s long-standing policy towards Cuba is inevitable, says an expert to the island based at London Metropolitan University.

And the prospect of this change will result in a 'gold rush' stampede by foreign firms into the Cuban market in the next few months as they seek to take advantage of the possibility of investing there before American firms get permission to do so.

‘With this election result, we will begin to see an immediate relaxation of aspects of the embargo that will lead to bigger changes in the future,’ says Dr Stephen Wilkinson, Assistant Director of the International Institute for the Study of Cuba. Change will be gradual at first, says Wilkinson, but small changes immediately will quickly lead to bigger moves.

‘At first travel restrictions on US travel to Cuba will be relaxed, but later we can expect exemptions in the embargo to allow US firms to invest for example in the new oil fields that have been discovered in Cuban territorial waters.’
The upshot is that European and British companies, who currently have no restrictions placed on their involvement in Cuba now have a window of opportunity to invest in the island before the Americans get in.

‘We can expect a ‘gold rush’ into Cuba in the next few months,’ he says.
During his election campaign Obama pledged that he would allow Cuba-Americans to visit their families more often and to send more money to the relatives on the island, both issue which were severely restricted under the presidency of George W.
Bush and supported by the Republican candidate John McCain.

‘Obama’s victory in the crucial and hitherto Republican swing state of Florida where most Cuba-Americans reside means that Obama has a mandate to change policy on Cuba,’ says Wilkinson. ‘And the fact that both Houses of Congress have swung heavily towards the Democrats means that pressure to keep the embargo there will be greatly reduced.’